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Thread: Comprehensive probabilities index

  1. #21
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    TO Shooter with Frost Arrow, Raldag, Runes of Power and Heroism (ndice:3 hitmap:0,0,1,1,2,2)

    Exactly 0 Hits = 0.46%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 2.78% At least 1 Hits = 99.54%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 9.72% At least 2 Hits = 96.76%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 20.37% At least 3 Hits = 87.04%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 29.17% At least 4 Hits = 66.67%
    Exactly 5 Hits = 25.00% At least 5 Hits = 37.50%
    Exactly 6 Hits = 12.50% At least 6 Hits = 12.50%

  2. #22
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    TO Crusher with 2 Life, Raldag (ndice:4 hitmap:0,0,1,1,1,1)

    Exactly 0 Hits = 13.19%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 0.00% At least 1 Hits = 86.81%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 0.00% At least 2 Hits = 86.81%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 38.58% At least 3 Hits = 86.81%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 48.23% At least 4 Hits = 48.23%


    TO Crusher with 1 Life, Raldag (ndice:4 hitmap:0,0,1,1,1,1)

    Exactly 0 Hits = 51.77%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 0.00% At least 1 Hits = 48.23%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 0.00% At least 2 Hits = 48.23%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 0.00% At least 3 Hits = 48.23%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 48.23% At least 4 Hits = 48.23%

  3. #23
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    TO Crusher with 2 Life, Raldag, Runes of Power and Heroism (ndice:5 hitmap:0,0,1,1,2,2)

    Exactly 0 Hits = 19.62%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 0.00% At least 1 Hits = 80.38%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 0.00% At least 2 Hits = 80.38%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 0.00% At least 3 Hits = 80.38%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 1.03% At least 4 Hits = 80.38%
    Exactly 5 Hits = 6.58% At least 5 Hits = 79.35%
    Exactly 6 Hits = 16.98% At least 6 Hits = 72.76%
    Exactly 7 Hits = 23.15% At least 7 Hits = 55.79%
    Exactly 8 Hits = 19.10% At least 8 Hits = 32.64%
    Exactly 9 Hits = 10.42% At least 9 Hits = 13.54%
    Exactly 10 Hits = 3.13% At least 10 Hits = 3.13%


    TO Crusher with 1 Life, Raldag, Runes of Power and Heroism (ndice:5 hitmap:0,0,1,1,2,2)

    Exactly 0 Hits = 59.81%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 0.00% At least 1 Hits = 40.19%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 0.00% At least 2 Hits = 40.19%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 0.00% At least 3 Hits = 40.19%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 0.00% At least 4 Hits = 40.19%
    Exactly 5 Hits = 0.41% At least 5 Hits = 40.19%
    Exactly 6 Hits = 3.09% At least 6 Hits = 39.78%
    Exactly 7 Hits = 9.26% At least 7 Hits = 36.69%
    Exactly 8 Hits = 13.89% At least 8 Hits = 27.43%
    Exactly 9 Hits = 10.42% At least 9 Hits = 13.54%
    Exactly 10 Hits = 3.13% At least 10 Hits = 3.13%

  4. #24
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    Your stats for normal Gorilla are also wrong (they should sum up to 100% but they don't).

    JE Gorilla

    Exactly 0 Hits = 11.11%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 44.44% At least 1 Hits = 88.89%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 4.94% At least 2 Hits = 44.44%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 19.75% At least 3 Hits = 39.51%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 19.75% At least 4 Hits = 19.75%


    JE Gorilla with Chant of Growth

    Exactly 0 Hits = 3.70%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 22.22% At least 1 Hits = 96.30%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 44.44% At least 2 Hits = 74.07%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 1.10% At least 3 Hits = 29.63%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 6.58% At least 4 Hits = 28.53%
    Exactly 5 Hits = 13.17% At least 5 Hits = 21.95%
    Exactly 6 Hits = 8.78% At least 6 Hits = 8.78%

  5. #25
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    I also think that the way to look at Krung's stats is weird. Krung first rolls a die to see if all adjacent cards are affected. This roll has a 50% chance of success. Other than that, it's a standard 3 die unit.

    TO Krung on primary target:

    Exactly 0 Hits = 3.70%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 22.22% At least 1 Hits = 96.30%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 44.44% At least 2 Hits = 74.07%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 29.63% At least 3 Hits = 29.63%


    TO Krung on all other adjacent cards -> half of the above probabilities

    Exactly 0 Hits = 51.85%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 11.11% At least 1 Hits = 48.15%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 22.22% At least 2 Hits = 37.04%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 14.81% At least 3 Hits = 14.81%

  6. #26
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    FL Herald

    Exactly 0 Hits = 55.56%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 33.33% At least 1 Hits = 44.44%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 11.11% At least 2 Hits = 11.11%


    FL Herald with Incanter

    Exactly 1 Hits = 22.22% At least 1 Hits = 88.89%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 33.33% At least 2 Hits = 66.67%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 24.69% At least 3 Hits = 33.33%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 8.64% At least 4 Hits = 8.64%

  7. #27
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    Thanks! will update the original post later.

  8. #28
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    Bumping this fantastic thread.

    Gorilla + Chant of Growth

    0 hit = 3.70%
    1 hit = 22.2%
    2 hit = 44.4%
    3 hits = 1.1%
    4 hits = 6.6%
    5 hits = 13.1%
    6 hits = 8.8%

    Note that with the gorilla even though the odds of activating his ability are higher without Chant of Growth (44.4% vs 29.6%), the average damage (1.9 avg without CoG, 2.0 with 3AV normally, 2.6 dmg average with CoG) and potential upside (possiblility of 4,5, or 6 hits) is better with Chant of Growth.
    Last edited by Rdebruys83; 03-04-2019 at 10:55 AM.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oceano Nox View Post
    FL Herald

    Exactly 0 Hits = 55.56%
    Exactly 1 Hits = 33.33% At least 1 Hits = 44.44%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 11.11% At least 2 Hits = 11.11%


    FL Herald with Incanter

    Exactly 1 Hits = 22.22% At least 1 Hits = 88.89%
    Exactly 2 Hits = 33.33% At least 2 Hits = 66.67%
    Exactly 3 Hits = 24.69% At least 3 Hits = 33.33%
    Exactly 4 Hits = 8.64% At least 4 Hits = 8.64%
    something seems off here when adding incanter's 2AV.

    standard 4 dice odds =

    The probability of 4 successes is 19.7530864197531 = 256/1296
    The probability of 3 successes is 39.5061728395062 = 512/1296
    The probability of 2 successes is 29.6296296296296 = 384/1296
    The probability of 1 success is 9.87654320987654 = 128/1296
    The probability of no successes is 1.23456790123457 = 16/1296

    now take each number and subtract 1 hit, leaving only the times when your highest number is two of the same number or three of the same number.

    possible combinations of successful pairs where the pair is the highest result = 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s.

    for 3s, you only have 16/1296 possible combos where you don't subtract, all for 2 hits.
    for 4s, you only have 36/1296, of that, 4/1296 are 4 hits, and 16/1296 are 3 hits, 16 are 2 hits.
    for 5s, you only have 64/1296 - of that, 16/1296 are 4 hits, and 32/1296 are 3 hits, 16/1296 are 2 hits.
    for 6s, you only have 100/1296 - of that, 36/1296 are 4 hits, and 48/1296 are 3 hits, 16/1296 are 2 hits.


    for trips:

    3: 8/1296 - 8/1296 are 3 hits.
    4: 12/1296 - of that 4/1296 are 4 hits, 8/1296 are 3 hits.
    5: 16/1296 - of that 8/1296 are 4 hits, 8/1296 are 3 hits.
    6: 24/1296 - of that 16/1296 are 4 hits, 8/1296 are 3 hits.



    so in other words:

    4 successes = 0+4(quads) +(4+8+16) (trips+1hit)+(4+16+36)(pair+2hits) = 88/1296 = 6.7%
    3 successes = (256-88)+128 (96pairs+1hit and 32trips) = 296/1296 = 22.8%
    2 successes = 64 (pairs) + (512 - 128 (3hits exempted above)) = 448/1296 = 34.6%
    1 successes = (384 - 64pairs exempted above) = 320/1296 = 24.6%
    0 successes = 128 +16 = 144/1296 = 11.1%

    average dmg is only 1.89 for heralds + incanter, compared to 2.66 for a standard 4AV.
    Last edited by Rdebruys83; 03-05-2019 at 05:55 PM.

  10. #30
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    How much better does lucky stink make your team?

    1AV:
    0 hits = 11.1%
    1 hit = 88.9%

    Avg dmg = .889 (from .666)

    2AV
    0 hits = 3.7%
    1 hit = 22.7%
    2 hits =73.5%

    Avg dmg = 1.7 (from 1.33)

    3AV:

    0 hits = 1.3%
    1 hit = 10.0%
    2 hits = 29.7%
    3 hits = 58.9%

    Avg dmg = 2.5 (from 2.0)

    4AV:

    0 = .4%
    1 = 4.2%
    2 = 16.6%
    3 = 33.0%
    4 = 45.8%

    avg dmg = 3.2 (from 2.66)

    5 AV:

    0 = .1%
    1 = 1.7%
    2 = 8.3%
    3 = 22.1%
    4 = 32.9%
    5 = 34.9%

    avg dmg = 3.9 (from 3.33)

    6 AV:

    0 = .05%
    1 = .65%
    2 = 3.9%
    3 = 12.9%
    4 = 25.7%
    5 = 30.7%
    6 = 26.2%

    avg dmg = 4.6 (from 4)
    Last edited by Rdebruys83; 03-17-2019 at 01:47 PM.

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