Summoner Wars Probability Reference Card

Back in the early days of my Summoner Wars career, I posted a thread where I listed all of the odds for making standard 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 AV attacks:

http://www.plaidhatgames.com/sum_forums/showthread.php?1901-Never-Tell-Me-The-Odds-Summoner-Wars-Math-Made-Easy&p=78480#post78480

Forum user kaszkiet made an awesome reference card that you can print out at home with all of these percentages:

If you'd like to print this, here it is in high resolution.  I've rescaled the front and back to be the same size as Summoner Wars cards (58mm x 88mm) if you print it at 300 DPI.

Update: Forum user Lets play a game has provided this chart with even more details:

If you'd like to use a handy calculator for Units like Mook-backed Cave Goblins or Blagog, the following site found by Joepinion is also quite useful:

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Here's a quick guide to using that site:

Inputs:

Probability of success - Enter (as a decimal) the probability of getting a Hit on 1 die.  For example, hitting on a 3+ (normal AV) would give you .666667.  Hitting on a 6+ would give you .1666667.  Hitting a Mook-backed die (2+) would give you .833333333.

Number of trials - Enter how many dice you’re rolling

Number of successes (x) - Enter how many Hits you need

Outputs:

Binomial probability: P(X = x) - The probability of getting exactly how many hits you need

Cumulative probability: P(X < x) - The total probability of getting fewer Hits than you need (can be quite useful)

Cumulative probability: P(X < x) - The total probability of getting fewer or as many Hits as you need (not very useful)

Cumulative probability: P(X > x) - The total probability of getting more Hits than you need (not very useful)

Cumulative probability: P(X > x) - The total probability of getting as many or more Hits than you need (the most useful number, typically)

Posted by Kyle Stewart
Kyle Stewart is a contributor to PlaidHatGames.com.